Why haven't we found intelligent alien civilizations? There may be a 'universal limit to technological development’
In the past century, humanity has experienced rapid technological progress, moving from the first airplanes to moon landings and from early computers to smartphones. This pace has fueled the assumption that technological progress is boundless, especially as we discover that habitable worlds may be common. However, the Fermi paradox — the question of why we haven't encountered other intelligent civilizations if interstellar travel might be achievable — raises the possibility of inherent limitations to technological advancement for all civilizations.
Antonio Gelis-Filho, a researcher in Brazil, proposes a “universal limit to technological development” (ULTD) as a potential answer to this paradox. He suggests that technological and scientific progress may be inherently capped, making it impossible for any civilization to reach the level of galaxy-wide expansion. Drawing from human history, Gelis-Filho points to how scientific advancements, such as those in quantum mechanics and relativity, are becoming harder and more costly to achieve, with diminishing returns on investment in cutting-edge projects. This rising cost might eventually halt progress, as societies could prioritize their survival over resource-heavy, knowledge-expanding projects.
Gelis-Filho’s ULTD hypothesis also applies lessons from the decline of complex human societies. Drawing on the work of Joseph Tainter, he argues that civilizations grow by increasing complexity to boost productivity. Yet, beyond a certain point, added complexity demands greater resources and infrastructure, leading to diminishing returns and societal fragility. The hypothesis suggests that extraterrestrial civilizations might also face these constraints, limiting their technological reach long before they achieve interstellar expansion.
Despite these limits, Gelis-Filho doesn’t discount the possibility of detecting remnants of alien technology. Dead space probes, signals like the Wow! signal, or lost artifacts could act as “cosmic messages in a bottle” from distant civilizations. While such findings might not indicate an actively expanding alien society, they could offer hints of other intelligent life. Until we detect such signals or make unprecedented leaps in our own knowledge, Gelis-Filho’s ULTD hypothesis offers a thought-provoking perspective on the potential boundaries of civilization’s progress and longevity.
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